Morning Shaun!! It's not that we shouldn't have a plan but rather that POT is NOT predictable, and very difficult to calculate UNTIL IT HAPPENS. What I mean is: say you are betting 20 times every Saturday and coming out 10% ahead each week, it will "seem" clear you can double your bank in 10 weeks (more or less) at level stakes,and then again in 10 more weeks etc and be rather wealthy in a short while, as your gains compound
This would be a relentless process IF profit on turnover rolled on forever as "it should".But,alas horseracing is not like that.Past performance is no guarantee. POT is purely an "after the event" concept (maybe a misconception ) Please see below.
I have a POT of 10% and am dreaming of doubling my bank (currently $1000) and then doubling my bets from $10 to $20 and so on. My first bet hits a 100-1 shot and I'm "over the moon" as my bank IS doubled (also a POT of 10,000% at that point,too). Now I start betting $20 and after 47 outs I'm back to $1060 (ie I've invested the original $10 plus 47x$20 = $950) but am still about 11.5% up ON TURNOVER as $1060-$950 is that percentage. Now,should I persist with $20 bets??? If I bet the next $1060 in 53 bets and ,THIS TIME, achieve a few winners and a 9% POT, my bank'll will have increased to $1160. Looking at it from the beginning I'll have an increase of 16% overall which is very good AND steady POTs of 11.5 and 9 percent, which are about my "average". However,looking at it from "afterwards' I will now be in the position where I've actually bet $10+$940+$1060 = $2010 and have a "true" POT of about 8% AND I will have suffered an actual decline from $2010(after the big win) to $1160 (a loss of $850) from bet#2 onwards, despite further (smaller) wins. At this point AM I DOING WELL?? Is my selection method "on the skids'?? Is my "scientifically" calculated POT of 10% going to save my bank?
If anyone is still reading, then the conclusions are obvious. Like every other measurement in racing POT is ARBITRARY, determined by when you actually hit the winners; what they paid; when (or if) you decide to increase your betting level AND if you suffer a longish run of outs before the compensating(?) favourable POT resumes. It is especially misleading since your results will be totally determined by WHEN you take "the snapshot" of your performance.(A bit like HIH, One Tel and all those other creative accountancy disasters) Personally, I regard it all (POT) as misleading. Not WRONG to consider it,though I prefer to bet UNENCUMBERED by any notion of WHAT SHOULD BE. After all, isn't that exactly the HOOK that most rip-off system-sellers and spivs try to con US with!!?? Cheers and good punting, and lots of POT!!