Howdy Chuck, good to see you still in the game.

I think everything said here so far is basically meaningful and rather than add my own bit of meaning to the pot in a similar vein, I'd rather step out of the cement mixer [this stuff goes around and around but never sets].

A system might show a 20% profit over 5 yrs. yet 3 of those years showed a loss [a common system problem, unevenness]. Which year do we start betting in without hindsight ? Tilt.

Watching a system for a year that turns out profitable often leads to the conclusion that we are onto a winning SR. Nothing could be more uncertain. Having thrown 30 heads from fifty throws of a penny [a good SR], no one here would ever conclude we are onto a long term winning strategy by always backing heads, because we know it would be flawed logic at play. However, we will apply that same logic to punting systems. Why? Because we don't realize the same logic is involved. The odds we are looking at might be different, but the logic isn't.

Finding 'value' [often enough] is we know the crux of winning long term and value without hindsight, just can't be factored into any system. Backing the 'overs' [value] only doesn't help either, because there is no such thing as 'a' over or 'a' under. It's all subjective 'informed' opinion at it's best and a good guess at worst. Working out your own price line, and keeping at it until some accuracy is attained, is to me anyway the only way to find real overs and eventual profit. Hard work though of course and that's the rub. No 'easy' money in this game and I'm still working at it after 35 yrs. or so punting. It's been more pleasurable than profitable.

Cheers.