Hi Crash you write " forgot one rule for this system: If more than one runner found, choose the one with the shorter odds."


call me stupid, but I would tend to go the other way..i.e. back the longer priced one. Logic tells me that backing the longer of the two will produce a better profit over time. Nothing worse, for me at least, than backing the shorter one and having the longer priced one saluting the judge...

When two horses come up in a selection process..they have about an equal chance of saluting, according to that selection process.

Perhaps another way of eliminating one of the two selected horses might be to look at their winning percentage...eg. sack the selection that has less than a 20% win rate...such horses can be very hard to catch..and often run around at short odds. Tropiqualo in Brisbane surprised a few people and won two weeks ago and then went out short the following week and couldnt repeat it. History shows this horse to have a poor win rate.

Another option, perhaps, is give the horse that won its previous start the nod over the one that hasn't. last start winners are known to have a high winning strike rate when they next front up....esp within the 21 days time frame that you use already in your selection process. I'll say that this might work in Sydney better than in Melbourne. My own selections this year, that also won their previous start, are performing way better in Sydney than in Melbourne.. I dont have stats going back far enough to know if this is normal, or just happening this year so far.. It may straighten uop with the quality Spring carnival horses...

All the very best