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Old 8th September 2005, 09:25 PM
Guitar Jim Guitar Jim is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
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The basic maths involved in horse selection dictate that the higher the win % is , the lower the average dividend will be. This is totally unavoidable. It's impossible to overcome.... not one punter who has ever lived has found a way to achieve higher average dividends in conjunction with a higher win %. For example, and this is an extreme example just to make the point clearer, a permanent win strike rate of about 50% will NEVER deliver equal or higher average dividends, on a permanent basis, compared to the same punter utilising a method that delivers a permanent win strike rate of about 15%. It's mathematically impossible; the odds are so far against this happening on a permanent basis that it would make winning Lotto look easy.
****It's all about averages and the mathematics that apply to the subject.**** That's worth repeating a thousand times, every day of the week: the law of averages applies to all wins and all places and all dividends. When that's properly understood the punter then stops battering his head against a brick wall; he then realises his ONLY chance of a *permanent* profit is to work the percentages and aim for around that 1% or 2% POT based on thoroughly researched selections and betting techniques...... that's what a successful professional does and it gives one by FAR the best chance of all.
If one is a hobby punter, has his gambling well under control and bets very small and for entertainment, then all this doesn't really matter much to him. It's his hobby and he's entitled to do it any way he chooses, and I support that right.
The general rule of thumb is; the higher the win strike rate, the lower the average dividend (I'm talking long term here.... meaning year after year after year etc etc).
Also, keep in mind that there is no system that has not been invented. It's all been done before over the previous few hundred years; the data and methods are just re-arranged and re-arranged and re-arranged and re-arranged.... decade after decade after decade. Computer technology is totally incapable of picking more winners at better prices....... the ONLY use computers have is in the easy collection of data; computers make it soooooooo much easier it almost defies belief. BUT, computers won't turn you into a winner: They just make certain things easier.

I play a lap slide, hollowneck, Hawaiian acoustic guitar. Been playing nearly 40 years now.

I made the comments about the system printed because I know, from decades of experience, and thus just by looking at those results figures alone, that it will be guaranteed to produce a small percentage loss on turnover LONG TERM...... providing responsible betting techniques are used. If responsible, professional, betting techniques are not used then any method can, and usually will, end in disaster... long term.
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