Now this is where I disagree with you. If you said the empirical evidence suggests.... yadee yadee yada.. I would agree with you, but, and I'm going to use an extreme case here also:
What if Nev the Nobbler's method of selection is to give one horse in a meeting something to make it go faster. Unconventional I admit, but judging by the number of short priced favorites who come last in the first race in WA I suggest it's possible, he would defy the usual returns on his bets.
I agree with your basic argument but I don't think you can say that maths decree it. Too many people on this forum are too definite about what others can and can't do with their selections. It is possible to come up with something new.

KV