8th September 2005, 10:26 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 172
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Guitar Jim
Marcus, I'm not saying that he, or anyone else, has not or can't achieve the strike rate and POT mentioned (in the short term).
What I AM saying is that the combination of the said strike rate and POT is unsustainable in the *long term*.
For example, if a losing method is run for let's say 10 years, within that 10 year period there's bound to be periods (if these periods are considered separately, and not part of the whole 10 years) where a profit happens, where the strike rate will be sensational and be accompanied by unusually high dividends. If someone peruses one of those periods, in isolation to the full 10 year period, it can seem like a way has been found to beat the odds...... to get a great strike rate combined with big dividends. So....... the ONLY way, the only *accurate* way, to judge any method is to judge it's performance over incredibly lengthy periods and over many, many thousands of actual real world bets. When that is done, the overall law of averages then initially begins to assert it's dominance, and it's impossible to avoid this.
When the averages and percentages eventually show their hand in full , and a punter is STILL in front, then that punter is doing something right.
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Statistically speaking, I have to agree with you, BUT there is always a BUT,
neither you or I know how many bets he, she is putting in, it maybe a small number with a high strikerate and return? I am not an argumentative man by nature so please do not construe this as a start of an argument, I am simply pointing out that in horseracing a lot of things can, and DO happen that fall outside of quantifyable parameters.
As I said, if we are talking about prices, pools, number of starters and the relationship of all of those, then we can put it into a statistical table and analyse the data.
I mentioned before in an other thread that I know someone who has no knowledge of computers, statistics etc. but he is WINNING, He has paid for his house, paid for his two daughter's university education out of punting. You can meet him at the Caulfield TAB every day, he is only doing it for fun now being over 70, sometimes he would not bet for days and suddenly $200 on the nose! He is still very cagey about how he does it, but he has (as far as I could gather) the same sort of approach as Punter57, that is, he is following trainers, and the placing of horses in the right races. And this is my point. How do you put all this info into statistical tables?
Cheers
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