Dale

Thats the best way to test a system unless you have an extensive data base that way you are not only testing the rules but you are also testing how it handles at different times of the year with different classes of horses and different weather patterns

I can't remember who first printed this so i can't provide credit.

System testing with no data base
1. First sample = 150 recent races (or bets) If this shows miserable results, forget it. If it gets near to break even or pays POT continue. This sample will include at least one period of three consequitive days.

2. Second sample = 100 races from the same season in previous years (not recent races) but with NO consequitive days. If its near to break even or in POT, continue.

3. Third sample = 100 random races from all seasons trying only one or two races per day from here and there. If its near to break even or in POT, continue. A system MUST pass this test. (If you only sample consequitive days you can hit distorting cycles and mini-cycles. You have to sample against this phenomenon.)

4. Fourth Sample = carefully tabulate results over the last week's races, going back over some days covered in sample 1 but writing it up on a spreadsheet to examine results more closely.

Divide the profit by the maximum win dividend and this will come up with a figure.

Divide this figure by the total number of winners and express as a percentage.

If the profit comes from less than 20% of the winners, then it probably is an anomaly