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Old 14th September 2005, 09:03 PM
Neil Neil is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 804
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Nice results.

Just a few comments.

Sorry to disappoint you, but statistically the sample is probably too small to draw valid conclusions. But it's sure nice to be on the winning side! If you were staking level stakes you'd be well in front and able to easily withstand a losing run.

You mention a winning strike rate of 30%. That means on average three winners from every 10 bets or approximately one winner every three bets.

Let's assume this is a long term strike rate that would be maintained over thousands of bets.

So far with that strike rate your longest run of outs has been four.

With a 30% strike rate I think you have been very fortunate to only have a run of outs that small.

Assuming a 30% strike rate each race you have seven out of 10 chances of losing. So your chances of losing two races in a row are 7/10 x 7/10 which equals 49/100 - that's just about 50%. After you have lost two races in a row your chances of losing that third race is 70%. Your chances of losing that fourth race are also 70%. Your chances of then losing a fifth race are also 70%.

The safest staking method, unless you are able to assess what odds each of your selections should be is level stakes.
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