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Old 11th October 2005, 02:28 PM
xanadu xanadu is offline
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Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Newcastle, NSW
Posts: 1,492
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Sorry for reprising an old thread, but this particular category of races(ie. fields of 7 or less runners) has made me sit up and notice........again.
Two years ago I alerted fellow forum members to the fact that favourites in small fields were returning a much less than average winning ratio.
Subsequently, an ongoing tracking of favourites was implemented by the management of this site(at the time) to see if my "theories" stood up to scrutiny. I noticed with some scepticism how their ongoing figures "proved" that backing favourites in small fields could prove profitable(NB. for a very short time).
Well, nothing was said for some time and now I again bring to your attention what is going on in small fields. Where the prizemoney is relatively unattractive there is some incentive for the longshot in small fields to "win," usually at attractive odds, meaning that trifecta/exotic betting is a very attractive option. Therefore, for the alert punter, they should give considerable thought to backing the longshot, be it by way of win/place or exotics in such races and going on recent activities they should receive regular good-sized dividends.
Anybody else notice these trends?

Cheers.
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