G'day Merriguy,

Good to hear from you and in respect of your comment about backing Milk in a field of less than 7 starters. This can be a very successful stategy over the long term as overlays for the place are quite common as the general public steer away from what they perceive to be risky betting propositions. By this, I mean that usually to calculate place divs the ratio of 1/4 of win odds is utilised in fields of 8 or more. In fields of less than seven starters 1/3 of win odds applies. However, in an average 3 dividend race the Govt deduction is made then the place pool split three ways for calcultion of place dividends. However, in fields of 7 or less, after the Govt deduction, the pool is split only two ways and this offers the potential for obtaining an overlay for the place div. eg. a selection is paying $2.20 win, therefore the place odds should be 1/3 0f $1.20=$.40(ie. div $1.40). Quite regularly, the place div may be showing $1.60 or $1.70 and if this is maintained till race start you have a nice overlay of between 14.29% and 21.43%, which, if you can achieve on a regular basis, gives you the chance of formulating a profitable betting strategy.
To bet in fields of 7 or less starters, I quote from a punting icon, "Chicago O'Brien" a colourful racing identity from the U.S. in the 1920's: "pick 'em to win, play 'em to place." So what I am saying here is that when I bet in these small fields, I wager on the horse that I expect to win but bet 1w 5pl to give me a bit of insurance in case it gets narrowly beaten.