26th July 2014, 01:09 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,366
|
|
If 1% of backers win, and 1% of layers win, that means that 23% of arbers and traders who ONLY use the exchange, win and I think that's an enormously optimistic statistic. Arbers that use bookies and exchange would be losing on the exchange, therefore, it just doesn't add up.
I know that some backers, layers, and traders win very large sums of money, but certainly not 25% of them. A lot of traders do win, but then get done by a series of bad decisions and chasing, exchange crashes, late scratchings and internet or computer problems.
And let's not forget that most trading is done in play or in running and analysis of in play data just doesn't show that much of an edge unless you're very special at beating the consensus.
I really don't think 25% of people can beat the consensus, I would say that 80% of betfair profits come from 20% of not customers, but winning customers, which again defies their original statistic.
|