Cross Counter
4yo B Gelding
Teofilo (IRE) - Waitress (USA) [by Kingmambo (USA)]
12s: 6-2-1
So what's changed since last then? Well, he won last year's Melbourne Cup. In case anyone's forgotten how thrilling his finishing burst was:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95ypY3OqS6w. He was drawn wide, went back and with the light weight zipped by the field in the straight. He just collected Marmelo in the last 50m, but had 3 lengths on everyone else.
He's back to defend his title, and has a real weight rise of just 2.5kg. He carried 51kg, 4.5kg below the benchmark for a Northern Hemisphere 4yo at the time. His weight this year is 57.5kg, 2kg below benchmark.
From the stats I have for returning winners:
Almandin went up 4.5kg (12th 11.7L)
Americain went up 3.5kg (4th 1.5L and then 11th 6.7L)
Dunaden went up 4.5kg (14th 10L and 11th 8.8L)
Fiorente went up 1.5kg when moving from 2nd to 1st
Green Moon went up 3kg (21st 44.4L)
Makybe Diva went up 4.5kg (1st, then a further 2.5kg for 1st)
Media Puzzle went up 3kg (12th 10.3L, 2 years later)
Shocking went up 6kg (18th 19.4L)
Viewed went up 5kg (7th 4.4L).
So Cross Counter has been treated relatively kindly when compared to recent winners. Prior to the Melbourne Cup his Official British Rating was 114. Now it's 118, so that's also in keeping with the weight rise. Compared to the other horse's in the race and their ratings, only Raymond Tusk, Hunting Horn (if you take his overseas rating), Il Paradiso and Master Of Reality get 1kg or more in their favour.
Per a report earlier in September:
Syndicator Luke Murrell, whose company Australian Bloodstock syndicated the 2014 Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist, said Cross Counter was extremely well in with his current weight.
“Cross Counter, with 57.5kg he has been gifted the race this year,” Murrell said.
“He’s had seven starts in Group company for three wins- two at Group I level and two placings to the best stayer in the world in Stradivarius – basically the Melbourne Cup is over before we start if he travels well.
“How you can get into a Melbourne Cup having won last year - then winning the Dubai Gold Cup - then with the fat Stradivarius form – with 57.5kg is surprising.
“You can only assume he's a put in and take out job - and the $17 is a gift this far out - if he arrives here on the day, he will start 4/1.”
He's at $14 currently, but then very little word has escaped Werribee.... He was also sent for a precautionary CT scan last week but was passed as suitable.
Since the 2018 Melbourne Cup he's won the Dubai Gold Cup relatively easily bar for Ispolini - who's since been scratched (
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxryP4DxT-Q), ran 4th in the Gold Cup at Ascot within 2 lengths of Stradivarius (over 4000m which is too long for him), and then was back to 2 miles in the Goodwood Cup Stakes (
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUMkUv6e1Tw) where he finished 7 lengths in front of Southern France, and just behind Stradivarius and Dee Ex Bee again.
His one blemish was his final European race in the Irish St Leger. Southern France just shaded him and he finished among some other Cup challengers. Per his trainer Charlie Appleby: “Cross Counter put up a pleasing effort. It was a bit of a messy race but he produced another solid performance and we can look forward to seeing him try to defend his crown at Flemington.” Given his earlier form I'm inclined to think that Cross Counter just had an off day there.
He won't be able to run by the field as he did last year but he's drawn well in Barrier 5. I'd certainly have him among the top finishers and wouldn't rule him out of going back-to-back.