Daniel from The Punter's Notebook generously gave me these stats about first and second favourites performance in relation to their last start. Worth a read.


Saturday Metropolitan Favourites - by last start finish position (last 38
months)

Last start
1st - 33.5% strike rate: LOT = -10.6%
2nd - 29.8% strike rate: LOT = -12.6%
3rd - 28.4% strike rate: LOT -10.7%
4th - 27.1% strike rate: LOT -15.7%
5th - 27.1% strike rate: LOT -12.9%
6th - 29.4% strike rate: LOT -2.6%
7th - 23.9% strike rate: LOT -21.1%
8th - 27.1% strike rate: LOT -4.3%
Worse than 8th - 26.9% strike rate: LOT -12.3%

Saturday Metropolitan 2nd Favourites - by last start finish position
(March
99 - April 02)

1st - 19.1% strike rate: LOT = -12.9%
2nd - 21.4% strike rate: POT = +0.1%
3rd - 18.4% strike rate: LOT -12.8%
4th - 17.3% strike rate: LOT -17.9%
5th - 19.6% strike rate: LOT -1.6%
6th - 16.3% strike rate: LOT -19.4%
7th - 20.3% strike rate: LOT -8.8%
8th - 16.2% strike rate: LOT -22.2%
Worse than 8th - 19.9% strike rate: POT +1.7%