24th July 2014, 06:08 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,366
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Or you can keep it real simple.
6,841 UK races
Take the top rated (favourite) an hour before the race start.
2,279 winners
Strike Rate 33.31%
Return 6,816.49
Take BFSP on those favourites
Return 6,932.27
Of course this would be a loss after commission.
Take BFSP and stipulate that the price MUST be greater than the price an hour before the start.
That gives 3,582 races
1,008 winners
Strike Rate 28.14%
Return $3,717.51
Again commission would erode most of the profit.
However, once we go down the ratings, up in price, the same pattern emerges, the strike rate drops, however, the POT increases exponentially to outgun commission.
There are ways to use this information to greater benefit rather than straight out backing, because one can reduce liability to grow profits.
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