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Originally Posted by The Ocho
Thanks for the late Christmas present however I can't unwrap it...lol. Are we backing or laying? I think you're saying to back at the higher (lay) price if the prices goes down (steam in)? Therefore is this an in-play system as the bet wouldn't be matched prior to the race? And is that for every horse in the race where the price goes down? An example would be good.
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You are watching the pre-race fluctuations to find the right price. you then back the horse at a better price. It won't always get matched but when it does you will have value and make money long term.
The bet cancels at In play if it is not matched. 10 secs before the race starts gives you ample time for the odds to move up to your price.
As an example:
Lets say horse A 5 mins before the jump is showing the following odds on betfair - 3.20/3.50
We note down these prices and wait.
At 10 seconds to the jump we recheck the prices and they are now 3.10/3.30.
We note that it is a steamer (price dropped) so we put in a bet to back the horse at the higher of the two lay prices which were 3.50 and 3.30. So we put in a back at a minimum price of $3.50 and if not matched at betfair SP the bet is canceled. If however we have a price of 3.50 or higher then we have just picked up some seriously good value on a horse which was moments ago priced at 3.10/3.30.
Here is another example:
Horse A is priced at 4.00 /4.10 at 5 mins to go. Note the prices.
At 10 seconds to go the horse is now priced at 3.90/4.20.
This is a steamer as the lower price has decreased from 4.00 to 3.90. The two lay prices were 4.10 and 4.20 so we place a bet to back the horse at 4.20 or higher.
Its based on the assumption that the current price 10 seconds to go is pretty close to the right price and that the betfair algorithmn doesn't always match perfectly for the betfair SP and it can move off the right price.
If you do all horses regardless of price it makes about 600 units a year. If you restrict to favourites to reduce the run of outs it makes about 30 units a year.
Improvements I have not looked at include setting a minimum value % between the current price and the price you are backing for. Maybe including some sort of form and or other odds providers in the analysis, percentage of movement, etc.
There are lots of tweaks but the strike rate does not suit me. It can be as low as 11% for all horses and 30%+ for $5 and under.
Hope that explained it clearly.