Evening chaps. Need your help with this puzzle which has been canoodling around in my head for some time now. Ohh the pain.. THE PAIN !

1. 40 - 45% long term strike rate for picking the winner in top two picks.
2. 90% probability that top pick in today's race will lose
3. Field size is 10 to 12

What is the probability that pick 2 will win today??

Cheers LG

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The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB