If you've been reading my lay thread "Some Oz lay selections" http://www.propun.com.au/racing_for...ead.php?t=15751 you'll know I've been testing a lay selection method that unfortunately turns up some nice priced winners in the price range "11.50 and greater"*. Lays in the price range "11.00 and less" have managed to produce a profit but laying anything outside this range look's pretty fatal. Some quick calculations suggests that backing the selections 11.50 and greater should continue to produce some decent priced winners. I'll admit defeat in laying these so I'll turn the testing around and suggest these are backed to win instead.

20070421 ASCT05-01 Is Amazing 4.00 ... WON -3.00
20070421 ASCT08-03 Boy Canny Go 8.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 CRAN08-05 Archachon 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 CRAN08-07 Mr Wang 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 E_FM01-08 Gonzalo 19.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 E_FM02-07 Leica Launch 15.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 E_FM06-01 Magically 6.40 ... WON -5.40
20070421 E_FM06-02 Love And Money 7.40 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 E_FM06-09 No Mistake 46.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 GCST05-04 The Chanster 4.10 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 GCST08-05 Tag 15.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 HAWK03-01 Hadaaf 7.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 HAWK03-06 Count Milano 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 HAWK04-10 Hesiod 11.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 MORP01-02 Dandy Jester 27.00 ... WON +26.00
20070421 MORP01-03 Foolish Lad 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 MORP02-02 Exalted Time 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 MORP04-04 Isanami 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 MORP04-07 Maloose 4.90 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 MORP07-03 Reshuffles 21.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 NCLE01-08 Queen Nadima 6.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 SANL05-06 No Trouble 19.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 SANL06-10 Satin Robes 11.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 SANL07-01 Sarrera 4.90 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 SANL08-07 Rulan Ruby 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 TWBA03-06 Creswina 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 TWBA03-07 Ultra Modern 44.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 TWBA04-06 Rockababe 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070421 TWBA04-07 Catch The Cougar 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070421 TWBA05-08 Regal Charmer 85.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 ASCT07-16 Webb Ellis 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 BATH04-06 Royal Attitude 5.50 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 BATH04-07 Owatonna 6.40 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 BATH05-02 Dame Seven 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 BATH05-06 Pickett's Charge 13.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 BATH06-05 Effdeecabernet 7.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 CHEL04-01 Londo 4.30 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 CHEL06-07 Croquet 6.80 ... WON -5.80
20070425 CHEL08-02 Marzotto 14.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 CHEL08-16 Woodland Jack 19.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 GCST04-05 Glowing Rose 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 GCST07-09 Sky Mine 11.50 ... WON +10.50
20070425 GCST07-11 Inside Knowledge 17.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 GCST08-11 Sweetmandy 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 MOE_04-03 Pride N Talaq 7.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 MOE_06-07 Don't Be A Devil 46.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 MOE_06-08 Elliptical 16.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 MOE_07-01 Cobalta 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 MOE_08-07 Indicates 34.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 M_V_02-08 Joontoo Gemini 25.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 M_V_04-04 Vengo 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 M_V_07-03 Miss La Tar 19.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 RAND01-06 Command Ruler 8.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070425 RAND04-08 Cagey Savings 70.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 RAND05-08 Big Head 44.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070425 RAND07-03 Sussman 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 ASCT04-03 Cat In A Hat 8.20 LOST +1.00
20070428 ASCT07-07 Zambane 25.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 ASCT08-05 Dee Picked 5.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 ASCT08-10 Lizardis 7.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 CAUL03-01 Speedy Rossa 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 CAUL05-02 Life's A Bounty 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 CAUL06-03 Rockford Bay 20.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 CAUL08-02 Pinezero 11.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM02-05 Stirling 14.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 E_FM02-10 Moonlight Shadow 8.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM04-07 Vietnam 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM05-04 Mesmerising 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM05-07 Point Made 26.00 ... WON +25.00
20070428 E_FM07-06 Primus 10.50 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM08-01 Omnitrader 7.00 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM08-03 High Academy 38.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 E_FM08-08 Picablu 9.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 E_FM08-12 Noble Gaze 14.00 ... WON +13.00
20070428 GCST02-04 Casa Cardoso 17.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 GCST02-10 Monagetti 13.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 GCST05-04 Golden Whistler 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 GCST05-06 Nepro 19.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 GCST05-10 In Order 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 GCST06-07 Muscle Up 10.50 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 GCST08-04 Aquaracer 6.20 ... WON -5.20
20070428 GCST08-05 Bushie 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
20070428 GCST08-09 Daintree Crossing 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 MORP03-09 Night Gazer 24.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 MORP04-09 Lessie 29.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 RHIL03-06 Rubinda 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 RHIL03-07 Oakland Lad 7.60 ... WON -6.60
20070428 RHIL07-09 Newport 30.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070428 RHIL08-02 Biscayne Bay 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 BLMT03-11 Trustadane 30.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 BLMT06-06 Star Laser 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 BLMT07-10 Doyoudare 17.00 ... WON +16.00
20070505 BLMT08-06 Yeah Yeah 18.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 BLMT08-09 Boy Canny Go 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 BRAT05-05 Decamp 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 BRAT07-02 Saliente 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 BRAT07-11 Golden Engagement 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 GAWL06-15 Just A Giggle 27.00 ... WON +26.00
20070505 GAWL08-13 Warwick's Brother 38.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 GCST02-01 Vitesse Dane 4.10 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 GCST06-03 King Rex 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 GCST07-12 Gaze 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 IPSW06-05 Darry 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 IPSW07-05 Snow Destiny 15.00 ... WON +14.00
20070505 IPSW08-15 Lightning Brown 48.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 K_GR06-06 Gunna Happen 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 K_GR07-01 Geiger Spirit 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 K_GR07-02 Double Dip 8.60 ... WON -7.60
20070505 K_GR08-02 Jet Hawk 5.80 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 M_V_06-04 Ghost Party 80.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 M_V_08-07 Carat Cake 9.60 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 RHIL03-03 Scissons 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 RHIL05-06 Lady Gulch 5.10 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 RHIL07-05 Rena's Lady 38.00 ... LOST -1.00
20070505 RHIL08-12 Junebug 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
20070505 TWBA05-08 Ruby's Party 11.50 ... LOST -1.00

===
RESULTS: April 21st - May 5th

Lay 11.00 or less
===
Number of Selections: 53.00
Observed Successes: 47.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.68%
Expected Successes: 45.62
Expected Strike Rate: 86.08%
Advantage: 3.02%
Success due to luck: 55.00%
Units Profit: +13.40
ROI: +25.28%

Back 11.50 or greater
===
Number of Selections: 63.00
Observed Successes: 7.00
Observed Strike Rate: 11.11%
Expected Successes: 3.41
Expected Strike Rate: 5.41%
Advantage: 105.47%
Success due to luck: 14.97%
Units Profit: +74.50
ROI: +118.25%


* Hopefully you've been very cautious in this range. I did post plenty of disclaimers.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash