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Originally Posted by Winston_Smith
all you have done so far is throw up smokescreen to hide the fact that three times now you have ignored my assertion that your figures are flawed. they are fatally flawed. you argue all other points other than this becos you know that you cannot argue this point. to suggest every horse has 1/N chance of winning and 3/N chance of placing is just plain silly. your calculation are based on this premise and it is here that your calculation are flawed. ignore fact that impact value are flawed. ignore question of whether your calculation better than impact value. your calculation still based on flawed logic therefore calculation are flawed. even mr chrome prince agree with this.
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winston,
Everyone who bothers to look back through my actual words as opposed to your distortions of them can verify that I have never claimed nor suggested that every horse in a field of N has a 1/N chance of winning.
In fact my precise words were:
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Originally Posted by jfc
... for a field of N:
Expected Win = 1/N
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An intelligent and knowledgeable person would know what I meant by that. That person would realise that this was one of many contexts where Expected does not mean Chance.
For a start here Expected = Chance is an absurd notion so therefore Expected is intended to have some other meaning than Chance.
Here the context was as in Actual versus Expected.
Now if I really believed that Expected was Chance why would I bother going to the trouble of counting Actual and computing A/E?
And why do I have to go to the trouble of demonstrating as I just have, that I did not suggest that Expected = Chance, when anyone who was concerned about that could have easily figured out my meaning for themselves?
Long ago I assumed that everyone else was well and truly bored with this discussion so I let your obvious misquotations and errors go, on the basis that most would see them.
But you insist on labouring your distortions, probably in the belief that if you drag your false accusations out long enough others will begin to believe you.
On the other hand I hope that more people will instead see you for what you really are.
Most words have a number of different meanings, so it is very easy going through others' work looking for something to misinterpret. If that fails, then misquote them, and start quoting the misquotes. But if even that backfires on you, merely change your identity again.