The EPL is starting up after three months in limbo. Here is Round 30 again but with the second make-up match: Aston Villa vs Sheffield. The 12 games are squeezed into 5 days from 17-22 June to be followed by 10 more games from 23-25 June. Talk about congested fixtures!

With empty stadiums, the home advantage should be less in two ways. The home players won’t have as much psychological boost and referees who usually favour the home team with a loud crowd will have silence. There were studies where refs watched videos in a studio, half with crowd noise and half without. The ones that watched with crowd noise called “virtual” fouls more often on the visitors. The refs without sound called fouls about equally.

I checked the bookie prices from three months ago when we were supposed to have Round 30 the first time. The home team payoffs have been increased and the visitor payoffs are now less, which tells us that the bookies are calling for less home advantage. I could have guessed at a lower home advantage but I’d rather let my system find the home advantage as we play on

We will find out what effect the three months off had on physical conditioning and team cohesiveness.

Bet cautiously as we start up and stay well, my friends!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

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