29th November 2017, 06:03 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 641
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Mark
You've lost me Ray. I had a good week and then a bad week and last week I stayed out. Based on your prices I found 17 "value" bets of which only 2 won. Value in Burnley? yes, but they lost. Slight value in Watford for a win. Value in Tottenham?? your price 1.49, best I saw was 1.30. Value in Brighton?, yes but they lost, not a draw.
Not having a go, you are generous and brave putting up your markets, but saying you 'cashed', or broke even on clearly losing bets is a bit disingenuous."
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We are all friends here in the Ozmium forums. We exchange information and suggestions about sports in general and betting in particular in a friendly manner. I am happy to volunteer my time to give predictions and suggest betting techniques as I have been doing for 45 years in general and for more than 10 years with Ozmium. If you or any one has a question, I am most happy to answer. However, an accusation like “disingenuous” has no place here and I will not tolerate insult, if my predictions are to continue in soccer.
I am happy to explain how my betting methods created a profit for EPL week 12. I am attaching the Kelly betting methods which I have attached to my Super Rugby predictions each week. The first section explains the Kelly method. The second section gives an example for Super Rugby while the third section contains a table for EPL week 12. First, I suggest comparing my fair odds with a bookmaker. I use TAB New Zealand for internet access. Obviously, if anyone has different bookie odds, betting would be different. First look for a game where the bookmaker odds for either team to win is more than mine. If not, there is no bet. As in the first section attached, do not bet if the bookie odds to win is less than 1.5 or more than 4.3. Next use the first section to apply the Kelly method which is derived to provide maximum exponential return on bankroll. I use ½ Kelly to keep the sum reasonable for a weekly league betting. I suggest not betting if the fraction of bankroll is less than 1.5%. If there would be more than 10% of bankroll for one game, I suggest limiting to 10%. I suggest keeping the weekly bet at no more than 25% of bankroll.
I then provide a table for EPL week 12, using ½ Kelly against TAB New Zealand. There was a value bet of 15 total supporting Tottenham which was lost. There was a total bet of 51 supporting Brighton, which was returned due to a draw. The bets supporting Burley for 73 and Watford for 85 both won with 50 and 59 respectively being multiplied by 1.9 and 2.1, respectively for a return of 95 and 124 respectively. The total bet was 224 and the total won was 270, for a 20% profit.
I wish good luck to all of you.
Ray Stefani |