Here's my view (Part II):


13 - Surprise Baby
Eye-catching run in last year's Cup: was totally unsuited by the pace but rocketed home from near last to finish inside 1 length. The wide barrier draw wasn't bad for a backmarker, but if he had a couple kilos less, or the race was run at a rate that would have tired those at the front, he would have been an unlucky second (to Il Paradiso) instead of 5th. There looks to be more pace in this year's edition and the closer barrier draw should knock 4 lengths or so off his journey, presuming he doesn't have to hook around everyone at the turn. The extra 1kg on his back this year shouldn't matter all that much. He'll still need a little luck for his style of running though: one Craig Williams ride to the standard of the 2019 Melbourne Cup, please. He's targeted this race with a prep to keep him very fresh. First up was too short over 1600m and still only just edged out by Humidor; the Turnbull Stakes he was unlucky and held up for half of the straight. He'll be third up into the Cup. His running style is giving me pause (along with the form of a few internationals) but he is very much a winning chance. $12

14 - King Of Leogrance
Ran a cracking Adelaide Cup, then took 2 months of ahead of the Ramsden and was outrun to the ballot exemption there by Oceanex. Just the two lead-up runs with the first of these, the Turnbull Stakes, a forgive. Finished 1.5L behind Steel Prince in the Geelong Cup, second up, and gets 0.5kg back. $31

15 - Russian Camelot
Tough to see him getting one back on his half-brother Sir Dragonet: 0.5kg better off in the Cup and he looks even better suited to the distance than Russian Camelot does. That he drew wide and had to work for a spot (running 2L further) is the only query on that. Top 10 finish very likely and is a place chance, so he's in the mix of jagging a win, say $15

16 - Steel Prince
My first thought was that he's doing better than last year, but then I saw he was $61 in last year's race so that wasn't saying much. Didn't race in the Autumn on account of a stress fracture but seems to be in order now. Did very well in the Bart Cummings and then went on to win the Geelong Cup; not as great as Prince Of Arran's performance of last year, but still OK. Great stats at 2400m and above: since coming to Australia he's 6 wins and 4 placings from 11 starts. You'll know he'll put up a good fight. Has drawn wide and gone forward on a couple of occasions and I wouldn't be surprised to see that on Tuesday. With the right run he could threaten. $31

17 - The Chosen One
17th placing in last year's Cup but that can be discounted as, not only was the pace a joke, but - for some reason - they decided to run in the Hotham a couple days before, even though he was going to make the field. Picked up a 2nd in the Sydney Cup on a heavy track over Autumn, so the 3200m distance isn't a problem: only it was behind Etah James, so no great shakes there. The Herbert Power result was quite disappointing but it looks like a sit-and-sprint which will rarely flatter a backmarker at Caulfield (The Chosen One won it the year prior 3s faster). A 1L 3rd in the Caulfield Cup and he gets 0.5kg back on the winner Verry Ellegant. A bit of a lucky run where a gap opened at the right time but he somehow only ran 4m less than the winner overall. Great draw for a similar kind of thing to happen in this race. There are some timelines where he'd be in the mix but many more where he isn't. $31

18 - Ashrun
The Hotham winner has a pretty good record in the Cup of recent times, but for Ashrun this Will mean 3 runs inside 2 weeks. Downdraft couldn't do it last year, finishing 22nd after winning his way into the field the Saturday prior. Ashrun won with 61kg in what surely could be called a gutbuster to the line. How does he back up from that? He'll have to work hard after drawing widest on Tuesday also, else be hooked to the rear and ridden for luck. Has the talent, but I think the circumstances to get into the field will knock off the gloss. Chance of placing if things go ideally, but too many queries for mine: $26.

19 - Warning
Was a close finisher in the Turnbull Stakes, weaving through the field from the rear and earning a big ratings jump. From there he has a favourable 3.5kg turnaround in the Cup weights with respect to Verry Elleegant and Finche, and 2.5kg on Surprise Baby. Unfortunately, at Cup weights, he was a bit of a fail in the Caulfield Cup, finishing 5 lengths back. Arguably it was the wrong pace on the wrong track from the wrong position, but you would have hoped to see a little more when clear. Not sure that the Soft surface suited either which, if true, puts even better stock in his distance ability, winning the 2500m Victoria Derby on Soft a year ago. The Caulfield Cup performance wasn't unanticipated, with his trainer saying that Warning hates Caulfield, and his jockey stating that he'd be better suited by the bigger, flat track at Flemington. He's currently at $51 but I think he's maybe been misjudged a little. $26

20 - Etah James
Too old. Not enough class. Too much weight. Needs a wet track. $101.

21 - Tiger Moth
What the heck are we supposed to do with this?! Only had 4 career runs and 2 of those were in maidens... Horse Racing Ireland have given him a 113 rating, which is 4 higher than what Rekindling had at the time of his Cup victory (and what they gave him when he returned to Irish Racing afterward). Tiger Moth carriers 1kg more than Rekindling did in 2017. His rating mostly seems based on his narrow 2nd to Santiago in the Irish Derby and what that horse did surrounding it. Santiago had won the Queen's Vase 8 days beforehand and his trainers said it was a big call running him again so soon. The Derby itself, though held in driving rain was on a Good track and nearly 7 seconds slower than the 2019 revival. Next race, Santiago finished a couple of lengths behind Stradivarius: which is pretty meaningless as Stradivarius *usually* only just does enough to win. Nayef Road was 2nd, 1.25L ahead, and it's probably more accurate comparing to him: a 115-rater carrying 5.5kg more. Tiger Moth's next race was a win in a Group 3 which the Racing Post said was 3.5s slow, so - again - the 4L margin looks more impressive than it should. Tiger Moth's more of a punt than I like. If he was 50-51kg I think he could be a shot but - and I may look silly saying so - I think he's a place chance at best. $15.

22 - Oceanex
Won the Andrew Ramsden in Autumn to get in; hasn't shown much since. Passed a vet check yesterday to make the field and has a gear change, using something for horses with hoof problems. Her trainers have said a soft track would be preferred and she's not going to get it. Besides that, Miami Bound flew away from her on that very surface in the Gold Cup and she's 0.5kg worse off on Tuesday. $51.

23 - Miami Bound
Won the Oaks comfortably this time last year, then was brought back out in Autumn and was very ordinary. That form continued until her last race in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, where she was pretty great though unwanted in the betting. I think she needs a wet track and a fierce pace to be of any real chance. Will probably drop back for cover and then run on for luck in the straight. I would think that 3200m is beyond her best but she's excelled with her two goes at 2500m so far, so what do I know? $41 in markets and that seems about right, for mine.

24 - Persan
Won the Bart Cummings, finishing 1L ahead of Sound who was just shaded by Ashrun in the Lexus. The weights between the races indicate that Persan is probably carrying an extra couple of kilograms. Very long campaign: the Cup will be his 11th run. On the plus side: 4 wins from 5 at Flemington and his best appear those over further (though this will be his first attempt at anything longer than 2500m he looks like he'll get the distance to me). His last run in the Bart Cummings was also very good: the previous two editions were both on a Good3 and this year's was over 2s faster *with* a last 600m split over 0.5s faster. The stats make it look like he favours wetter tracks, but the bulk of his good-track failures were prior to this season's "awakening". If he'd had one less victory he'd be on the second rung of "the system" (and given that all of them occured in the past 6 months from Maiden level and the handicapper has already admitted to getting his handicap weight wrong to begin with by penalising him 1kg, it's a blurry line here, per my thinking). Don't mind him for top 10 and should be shorter than his current price. Back in the 2018 thread it was a speculative factoid that horses who won the Bart Cummings and run the final 600m under 36s would finish top 5. Persan did it under 35s. $21