View Single Post
  #156  
Old 5th November 2019, 10:51 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 603
Default

Here is the 2019 Melbourne Cup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2GnR4YRNmE

Here are the final results:

FinishNo.HorseTrainerJockeyMarginBar.WeightPenaltyStarting Price
123VOW AND DECLARE Danny O'BrienCraig Williams2152kg$11
212PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) Charlie FellowesMichael Walker0.2L854kg1.0kg$17
320IL PARADISO (USA) Aidan O'BrienWayne Lordan0.3L1752.5kg$15
43MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) Joseph O'BrienFrankie Dettori0.4L155.5kg$26
518SURPRISE BABY (NZ) Paul PreuskerJordan Childs0.9L2053.5kg1.0kg$12
62MER DE GLACE (JPN) Hisashi ShimizuDamian Lane1.2L256kg1.0kg$9.50
711FINCHE (GB) Chris WallerKerrin McEvoy1.4L454kg$8.50F
81CROSS COUNTER (GB) Charlie ApplebyWilliam Buick1.6L557.5kg$13
921STEEL PRINCE (IRE) Anthony FreedmanBrett Prebble2.1L1652.5kg$61
1015MAGIC WAND (IRE) Aidan O'BrienRyan Moore3.6L2453.5kg$26
1110TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) Joseph O'BrienHugh Bowman3.8L1955kg$41
1217SOUND (GER) Michael MoroneyJames Winks3.9L1053.5kg$91
1319CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) David & B Hayes & T DabernigJoao Moreira4.1L752.5kg$9.50
144MIRAGE DANCER (GB) Trent Busuttin & Natalie YoungBen Melham4.3L1355.5kg$51
156HUNTING HORN (IRE) Aidan O'BrienSeamie Heffernan4.5L1155kg$51
1613RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) Richard HannonJamie Spencer5L354kg$21
1722THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) Murray Baker & Andrew ForsmanTim Clark5.2L1852kg0.5kg$31
187LATROBE (IRE) Joseph O'BrienJames McDonald6.45L2255kg$21
195SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE) Ciaron Maher & David EustaceMark Zahra6.55L1455.5kg$26
2024YOUNGSTAR Chris WallerTommy Berry7.3L952kg$31
2116NEUFBOSC (FR) David & B Hayes & T DabernigLuke Nolen8.3L2353.5kg$101
2214DOWNDRAFT (IRE) Joseph O'BrienJohn Allen8.6L1553.5kg$21
238MUSTAJEER (GB) Kris LeesDamien Oliver10.85L655kg$19
249ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) David & B Hayes & T DabernigDwayne Dunn40.85L1255kg$41


The race was run in 3'24.76 - there have only been two slower this century: Americain on Slow and Makybe Diva's middle title, also on a Soft 5. It wasn't just due to the track though: last year's track was a Soft 6 but the race was 3.5s quicker. Makybe Diva's last Cup was also on a Soft 5 and was 5 seconds quicker.

The 600m sectional was 34.75s - there have only been two quicker these past 10 years (since they were reported). 2012's Green Moon was in 34.07s and 2015's Prince Of Penzance was in 34.4s. They obviously had fuel left to burn.

The field was very slow from the 2200m through to the 1000m mark. The winning horses were able to position themselves at the front of the pack during this slow section. They got a rest and made it difficult for others to run them down in the straight. The horses that were 2nd, 3rd and 4th at the 1400m mark went on to be 1st, 2nd and 3rd across the line.

Because fatigue was not really a factor the field finished very close together; the first 12 finishers were within 4 lengths. The previous lowest place to finish within 4 lengths (this century) was 9th. The average distance a 12th place horse finished behind the winner prior to this renewal was 10.8 lengths.

The winner was very atypical given that it wasn't really a staying contest. Of the past 20 winners, Vow And Declare had the highest: Dosage Index, Centre of Distribution, and Conduit Index; and the lowest: Stamina figure (equal), third triad and difference between third and first triad. These are all indicators that a horse is more suited to shorter rather than longer races.

All credit to the placing jockeys: they turned the race into the kind of contest that would best suit their mounts. Brickbats for the other jockeys whom were unsuited by this turn of events: they just sat back and let it turn into a procession.

Can't really look at barrier distances because data for several horses is clearly wrong. They currently have Constantinople doing a 200m sectional in just over 9 seconds and running 202m further, for example.

'The system' had the winner on its top rung (among 5 horses). Master Of Reality slipped off the second rung inside the last few minutes with his price wound out to $26. So "posterity" didn't lose the trifecta on a protest!

The Conduit Mare Stamina 17 figure wasn't a factor this year given that stamina wasn't required.

Aspro's Melbourne Cup System had the winner among its shortlist also, so it does indeed sift the best local candidates.


The end!
Reply With Quote