RCP,

Interesting stuff given I'm more of a ratings person and frame my own market. I'm sure I still don't have the right way of going about it but I usually just use it to essentially rank my ratings rather than for direct comparison to the available prices. Although I have found that if an overlay is available (between 1x to 3x my calculated price) that it is a LOT more profitable then underlays or larger overlays, based on betfair prices.

For the races you covered RCP the following are the prices i came up with using my pricing method.

R1
3.23
9.16
9.35
12.02
17.16
16.96
17.69
21.56
26.41
24.18
26.74
31.84
43.12

R2
4.60
5.00
7.32
9.39
9.53
14.58
17.16
21.04
25.91
46.70

You'll note that my way of pricing gives more chance to the longershots winning compared to the odds which is generally in line with what your suggesting. I really wish I had the time, patience and know-how to set up my ratings to only bet overlays and lay underlays etc as I think it would be a worthwhile exercise.

I might go back over my recorded data thus far and see what laying underlays and/or laying the top fave when its not one of my top raters is like.