becareful,
Congratulations on an excellent and common sense post. It is a shame there aren't more intelligent and factual posts here rather than the usual "if it works for you, good on you mate and stick it up the non believers" drivel that occurs.
To me the most important point you make which is seemingly lost on progressive stakers is that each bet is an isolated occurance. Oliver's chances of riding a placegetter on Falvelon after 3 misses are the same as his chances of placing on Falvelon after 30 places in a row. Despite progressive staking planners protestations that is a fact that is impossible to refute. Does tails have a better than even money chance after 30 heads are spun? Of course the answer is no.
Keep up the thought provoking posts becareful, it is very refreshing reading.