I'm always weary of including horses that are trying to have a second or third go at it. Seems the often can run a place if performed well in previous years but rarely actually win. Now that may be simply due to luck or variance but its incredibly hard to win one melbourne cup, its even harder to try again second time around after losing previously with typically a higher weight and another years runs in the legs at an older age.

Not saying those runners can't run a great race, but if you want to narrow down the winning chances they'd be the first i'd look at in terms of winning. But it would be dangerous not to include them in exotics for placings.