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Originally Posted by michaelg
Hi, Chrome prince.
I knew someone who knew someone (sounds somewhat poetic) who worked with Mark Read. He said that M. R. would look at his top three selections and then totalled their percentages. For example, if they totalled 60% and he could get that percentage he would bet all three horses regardless if one, or even two, were below his calculated prices. If he could not get that total percentage then he would not bet on any of the three horses.
Again, this is only anecdotal and I am not certain if it is factual. But it does seem to have logic, and provides a fairly high strike rate.
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Hi michaelg,
I know he dutch bets from his writings and publicised bets, there are also many pro punters that dutch bet successfully.
I'm not sure he bets if they are below his calculated prices though, as this would be suicide.
There's nothing wrong with dutch betting if you have an accurate rating system and can maintain a posive outcome, what is questionable, is betting to odds or get a profit, when you are betting unders most of the time.
Having said all that, if the ratings system is that accurate, I'm of the opinion that betting more than one horse is shotgun approach and better profits could be made by backing the top rated longterm straight out (IF the ratings are accurate).
However, it depends on the price obtainable.
One might have a horse rated at 2/1 on top and get 5/2 odds, and might have the second top rated at 6/1, but get 12/1 odds.
Why bet the top rated, when the overs clearly are with the 6/1 shot, just for the sake of snaring a winner. Longterm the profits are with the greater overlay.
Again, IF the ratings are accurate.
One bet is always a wasted bet and money down the gurgler!
Racing is unpredictable as we all well know by hard luck and experience, if both or all lose, it's very hard to make that up, you need to get massive overs to make up the loss of two or three losers, two or three times.