25th January 2013, 08:09 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 217
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Barny
This Follow The Top 10 Sires thread is an absolute beaut and has inspired me to start this thread. I want to develop a list, preferably manageable when doing form, of say 10 rules to eliminate a horse. I've suggested only applying the rule to a horse because we could have 10 rules to eliminate a race before we even get started on the horse.
I have read a book called Systems By Design by Ian Barns that has 33 eliminating rules !! Thirty Three !! But the book is quite good.
My number one rule is not to back any horse second up. For more years than I can remember I've tested second up as I thought with a terrible run first up you could get any old price on the basis that punters might have thought the horse hasn't come up this time in. To indicate just how much work I went to, I developed a list of over 100 reasons given by trainers and media as to why a certain horse got beaten, it was primarily aimed at a horse flopping first up. Anecdotal evidence suggests that in all forms of sporting endeavours, second up usually produces a flat run. AFL footallers are a prime example.
So: Eliminate any horse second up.
If you don't agree with this rule, fire up !!!!!!!!
|
A few years ago, I would agree totally. Today, I am not so sure. I think we might have to now factor in the trainer and his training set up.
Most trainers have become more scientific, have better facilities and have better access to the actual physiolgy of the horse and its recovery from stress which includes ,racing, training and viruses.
A horses ability to recover after a first up run depends on its state of fitness going into that first race. Years ago most trainers used races to get their horses fit, today, only the less sophisticated do that or those trainers that do not have full facilities available to them.
The top and better trainers have all their horses pre trained for them, so when they arrive in the stable they are fit and ready to race. Their recovery rate is the same or maybe slightly less then a race fit horse. So, by being a little bit patient for the second up the horse will come to hand a lot quicker.
Because of a different training stratergy then years ago, horses come to hand a lot quicker. Statistics might prove me wrong, but I am fairly confident I am on the right track.
Pete
|