13th October 2016, 08:51 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,474
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thorns
Not really willing to share the method at this stage as its very simple.
Odds for the place range from 1.50 to 6.7 so far, throws up a variety of favs to outsiders and around 3 selections a race. Dont know how well it will hold up long term, on the TAB its break even, so think I will just start with some small $5 BFSP bets and test it out.
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ok so I am assuming betting and not laying. I also assume Aus markets only. I am assuming 7 days a week. If any of these assumptions are wrong then let me know.
Anything below $2.20 is going to be ok but don't expect much better odds then TAB and TAB will be higher on occassion especially after commission. The reason being odds may show $1.60 on TAB before the jump and betfair SP will go at around $1.68 and then TAB after the jump changes to $1.70 or $1.80. Place prices on the tote move around dramatically.
Anything over $2.20 to $6 is going to push it down slightly. But if yous tick to under $200 bets then it shouldn't affect it too badly and it will be better odds then the TAB almost always.
Anything above $6 a $200 bet could have dramatic affect depending on the liquidity. But saying that even after the bet would be applied your odds would be significantly better than the TAB odds in almost all instances.
I have generalised a bit in the ranges but that is a rough guide to the likely outcome on $200 bets.
Hopefully that helps.
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