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Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Race selection is about knowing the race. Its about understanding if 1,2,3, or 10 horses could win. It is about knowing how many can be ruled out as losers. Its about predicting improvements or losses in form on all the horses. From this you should know the minimum and maximum performances you can expect from every horse in the race and how they relate to each other which then tells you the likelyhood of it being a profitable race. Its about odds as well. Regardless of your research if the odds are not showing a certain way then it could be an unprofitable race to bet on even if you think there are only 3 chances.
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Whoopee dooooo!! EXACTLY.
There is very little difference in results from Country Maidens to Group1 races.
8 -14 starters ALL Going Fav results
Maidens ....... 34.10% $2.62
Group .......... 33.05% $2.68
WFA ............ 30.25% $2.93
C1 - 6 .......... 29.88% $2.89
MonCntryMdn 34.53% $2.62
SatMetro Grp .33.83% $2.68
As you will appreciate WSR's and prices improve/fall in line with Field size (see tables previously posted on this site).
I have included Monday Country Maiden and Saturday Metro Group races simply to demonstrate that "the money" isn't too far out despite the difference in class.
It is easy to demonstrate that the same lack of significant variation exists when one considers Going or Track or Barrier or the colour of the jockey's underpants.
Some of the 'systemateers' ignore this and look for horses which last raced 14 days ago on a wet track and placed from a barrier less than and on and on for another dozen "rules". This isn't horse selection. It's 'coincidence' hunting on the basis that it happened b4 (3 & 7 years ago) so it might happen again.
To my tiny mind UB has got it right.
Do your OWN analysis of the field, segregate the 'chances', and then calculate how it's possible to bet them for a profit. If the analysis gives you a 'beige' mixture then walk away.
Making a coupla bob on the Neddies isn't as simple as buying a 'system' or this or that 'can't fail' software. It's learning and adhering to the 'walk away' filters and doing your homework.