I'm taking you from the Black & White TV days to the 3D Colour era today. My aim is to see if we can confirm, or otherwise, existing beliefs by seeing things from a different perspective.
The attached image represents the Win Strike Rate % of horses in a 5 horse race. The data is gathered from over 3 years of results. I've kept it as a 5 horse race just for simplicity at this stage.

The Horizontal Axis is the Tote price from $1.20 - $3.70.

The 'red' line represents the 1st Favourite's chances of winning. The line rises as the Tote price increases indicating a lesser chance of winning, but more importantly it diverges from the horizontal indicating an underlay and a better Lay opportunity.

The 'green' 2nd Favourite line gradually converges with the 1st fav and at about $2.60 both favourites have an almost equal chance of winning. Consider Dutching the pair or a Quinella.

The 'purple' 3rd Favourite line indicates a constant "run the place" only stance. Perfect for the Trifecta 3rd place.

The 'blue' 4th favourite line is volatile with it's peaks slowly falling as the Tote price increases indicating an increased chance of winning.

The 'orange' 5th Favourite line is very volatile with a saw tooth profile indicating "surprises" ahead! Longshot Layers beware but Backers will be assured of a big payday if patient.

Some of you will no doubt grimmace, others scoff, some slowly nod but what the heck, have a great day! RP

Attached Thumbnails