13th February 2007, 01:30 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,366
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Mark,
I certainly think it's able to be done on paper, but in reality it might be different. I don't know for sure because at this point I'm turning over as much as possible to get my commision down. I've just stuck to a set formula without investigating too much further.
For example: I had an absolute ripper of a method which returned phenomenal figures on spreadsheet, the only hurdle was getting set at the prices. The ones I couldn't get set on to lay, lost, and the one's I could easily get set on won!
Now over time (enough turnover) it did return positive profit, but very small compared to the paper figures.
The point is that it would need to be trialled in real time even with the minimum bet size to see if it stacks up. My feeling is that there would be lots of times where you could get the right price on one and on the other you'd have to compromise the profit.
Mathematically it would work though.
Once things settle down a little (i'm wagering on all races bar the USA everyday) I plan to run a few ideas to see if they can augment what I'm doing.
It's a real pity that Australia has no historical data to work with apart from the last price traded, as that is no indication at all. An example is in the UK I have got set on a horse to lay it at $3.25, but it closed at $6.00 as the final lay price.
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