Chief, we have to agree to disagree here...It is not about winning one race, it is about winning on the horse alone. The chances of your horse winning in five starts (providing your selection criteria is sound) is much greater than finding the winner of the race. What you haven't mentioned are the times when you back 3 horses in the race and the 10/1 plus runner salutes. Especially in high class races it is possible to back more than one horse and still make a decent profit.

A blackbook system is a little different...that is, you see a horse that was unlucky, or won a race well and follow it after the fact. Yes you are bound to lose if this is your only selection criteria. Class is the major factor when selecting a stable, not current form.

As I have said before I select my stable on Class factor and not fitness nor recent performance, if a horse fails to run up to expectations...not necessarily win, within five starts he is sacked from the stable.

Shaun...I know what PPM did, it was called the dark horse system and it had basic flaws.
1. Horses selected were not selected by class, they were selected merely because they won one race each campaign.
2. They would back a horse first up merely because it won first up before without taking into consideration class factors.
3. They would assume that the horse would peak at precisely the same time each preparation and this simply does not happen exactly at the same time each preparation.

That is why their Dark Horse system failed.

You sound like you have the right idea though!