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Originally Posted by darkydog2002
Hi team,
A question I have always wanted know.
In yearly $ return on a Bank of $10,000 what would a reasonable figure be ?
I would average 4 bets per race to return on each bet 4 % of the bank betting to available fixed Price.
I have no intention of changing this figure until the Bank has at least doubled
Cheers
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Hi Darky,
All depends on:
1. Your average edge over the market on each bet;
2. Your average horse winning strike rate;
3. Your maximum risk threshold;
4. The number of bets over a period of time e.g per year.
So I will give you an example of the facts surrounding the nature of betting.
1. We will assume that you have a 10% edge over the market on every bet;
2. We will assume that your average horse winning strike rate is 15% (4 x 15% = 60% race strike rate)
3. We will assume that your maximum risk threshold is 50% of your betting bank.
4. We will assume that you have 1,667 bets in a 12 months period.
Your expected profit assuming the points above will be $10,002 (therefore you would double your bank. however:
1 line of deviation (68% of outcomes) the results could be anywhere between a profit of $3,587 and $16,417; and
2 lines of deviation (95% of outcomes) the results could be anywhere between a loss of $2,827 and a profit of $22,831.
Anywhere in the range is normal and almost guaranteed to occur. There is of course a 5% chance that the results could fall outside the ranges depicted above.
So the reality is you could have guaranteed edge of 10% profit expectation on every bet, have 1,667 bets and still be a net loser. That is the single biggest issue for punters to get their head around.