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Old 20th October 2020, 11:17 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Looking at that list who are in the top 24 we can contain our bets down to these horses:

TIGER MOTH (IRE)
RUSSIAN CAMELOT(IRE)
SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
FINCHE (GB)
PERSAN
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)
SIR DRAGONET (IRE)
BUCKHURST (IRE)

9 horses only which is not a bad list.
Verry Elleegant has slipped down a further rung on the ladder with a 0.5kg penalty earned from her Caulfield Cup victory (meaning she loses a point in "the system").

Russian Camelot could lose some points also, depending how he goes in the Cox Plate this weekend (NB - he will gain a point due to the field size)


Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
We can eliminate these horses:

SURPRISE BABY (NZ) -- TOO FAR BACK -- UNPLACED IN 2019
I'm not going to rule out any runners based on their performance in last year's "race". I'm cautious even about them being too far back. Il Paradiso came from 21st position at the 800m last year and may well have nabbed Vow And Declare on the line had Master Of Reality not squeezed him out. Cross Counter won from 22nd position at the 800m the year prior (and Marmelo's 2nd in that race, under a decent weight of 56kg, was also launched from 20th).

Persan must be a candidate for ruling out. His rating seems way too low. He's had 19 starts as well, so it's not like the handicappers haven't had a good look at him.
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