26th November 2013, 07:17 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 243
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by darkydog2002
.... I went looking for value as is the suggestion
5 Horses so I want $6
The prices were 8/1 - 6.5/1 - 30/1 - 16/1 - 50/1
Theoretical Bank $5000 betting to take 4 % of bank on each bet $200
8/1 = $22 - 6.5 /1 = $27 - 30/1 = $6 - 16/1 - 50/1 = $4
I will do this each week and follow up for 3 months.
Hopefully it might be ok betting in this manner.
Remember though that this is only theoretical
Profit $133
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Not sure about that Darky. You haven't done justice to the fact that there was a $51.00 winner from just 5 selections. You have wagered $71 and got back $204. The staking you suggested assumes the longer priced horses are always poorer value, so always deserve a smaller stake, which I think is wrong.
The successful test of any selections is whether or not they win at level stakes. I level stake with a very small fraction of a notional bank - well under 1% on each selection.
Assuming $20 on the 5 selections, $100 was wagered for a return of $1,020 for a profit of $920 - enough to cover 46 losing bets. Now that is a far better result than you got, wagering $71 for a profit of just $133, and does justice to an outstanding day with a $51.00 winner from just 5 bets.
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