Pedigree
There was a bit of pre-race chatter here last year regarding Melbourne Cup runners' pedigrees. So I thought I would play around with it again.

DISCLAIMER - I don't have any subscriptions or special databases, I worked the figures out myself. Consequently there are undoubtedly errors in my working - plus the source I used for conduit mares had a couple of the ones I needed missing. In any case, pedigree study is often so vague that a mistake or two won't make much difference.



Dosage Profile - Roman used a 'dosage profile' to describe the amount of certain traits inherited from preponderant sires called 'chefs de race'. The traits are - from left to right - Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid/Stout, Professional (and also from left to right: aptitude in sprints through to routes). The method is flawed and non-specific, but it does have some bearing on reality: that is, the population of horses that have lots of Brilliant points do better in Sprints than those who don't; but is this *particular* horse with lots of Brilliant points going to do well in Sprints? Can't definitively say. The more points, the more well-bred the horse. For the Cup we'd also like to see lots of points in the Professional category. ....unfortunately the only chefs de race passing on their Professional aptitude are from so long ago they barely feature in modern-day pedigrees. There very well may be sires passing on such genes but it's something that can only be determined retrospectively. (NB - I'm using the list that includes Australian and New Zealand chefs)

DI - Stands for Dosage Index: the ratio of speed to stamina figures in the Dosage Profile. For the Cup, the lower the better. There's a vague relation between DI and ideal running distance (but again, it's the 'on average' ideal for the population of horses with that DI, rather than necessarily being the ideal for a particular horse with that DI). A DI of 0.5 would be about right for 3200m. ....you'll note that none of the above have a DI that low. That's partly due to horses largely being bred for shorter races (there's more of them) and the lack of chefs de race that can add stamina points to the Dosage Profile.

CD - Centre of Distribution: ratio of speed to stamina figures in the profile, though giving more strength to the extremes than the DI. There's the same kind of relation between it and preferred running distance - and it's used in this regard more often than the relationship with DI is. The lower the figure, the longer the race suits. A CD of 0.16 would be about right for 3200m (though it's subject to the same issues as above).

Triads - Dosage has a number of issues, foremost amongst these is that there is no regard to the genetic contribution of females in the pedigree, nor to stallions who aren't deigned to be chefs de race. There have been studies that show some physical attributes are passed through mitochondrial DNA (i.e. along female lines) so a lot of such information would be missed through dosages. It's complicated to describe, but for the Cup you'd ideally be looking for a smaller number first and a larger number last - i.e. the total number of inherited traits are skewed towards stamina-based ones.

Speed/Stamina - Derived from the same data as previous, just thrown in sharper relief. Again, the bigger the gap the better, and the largest figure should be the latter. (This is presuming a truly run race, of course; in a sit and sprint it may be advantageous to have it reversed, as speed would then be the determinant factor of success in the race).

Conduit Index - ratio of speed to stamina figures, as derived from Conduit Mares. Unfortunately I've never found a source which equates a Conduit Index with an average ideal distance (like DI and CD do). The lower, the longer; however. 0.5-0.9 looks good - unless it's run super fast or super slow.


So who's going to win? No idea.

The highest CD of the last 20 Melbourne Cup winners: 0.7 (Jameka and Rose of Virginia have larger ones)

The highest DI of the last 20 Melbourne Cup winners: 5.4 [2.52 was the next highest] (Rose of Virginia has a larger one)

Lowest Stamina number of the past 20 winners (except for Rogan Josh, which I couldn't figure out): 12 (Wicklow Brave, Almoonqith, Excess Knowledge, Pentathlon, Qewy and Rose of Virginia are lower)


Pedigreely speaking, if the pace is true - as several trainers have indicated it will be - I like Big Orange and Secret Number as winning chances; Curren Mirotic and Who Shot Thebarman to place (who would actually be best suited of all, but their ages and barrier are concerning...)

A moderate pace: Big Orange, Exospherical, Grand Marshal, Heartbreak City, Almandin, Secret Number.

....but you can argue for just about anything*. That's the beauty of pedigrees!




* - anything except Rose of Virginia