Here's a bit of fun. It's time for a progressive look at "the system".
The first time I hosted one of these threads I included a few historical form factor factoids spread through different horse profiles. After the race was won and done, I went back and collected the form factors to see how they did. The Cup winner was the only one who satisfied all of the following:
- Less than 8 years old
- Weight < 57kg (unless Makybe Diva)
- Not a mare (unless Makybe Diva)
- <= $21 starting price
- < $16 in last start
- Weighted lower than in preceding race
- Field size in last race >= 10
- Previously won a black type race
- Finished within 7 lengths in last race
- No more than 5 career victories
- Within first 9 runners at the turn in last race
The 'Finished within 7 lengths in last race' was changed to 3 lengths after looking at recent results.
The 'Within first 9 runners at the turn in last race' was omitted from last year's calculations; probably 'cause it was hard to determine for some runners and pretty useless for others, given that many of the fields comprised of 9 runners or less in any case!
Last year 'the system' was used ahead of the race and it did pretty well. The first 4 were among the top 7 rated by the system and the winner was one of those in yellow.
Now what's this yellow business? The horses with a yellow background in the image were those with a Conduit Mare Profile Stamina number of 17. Search for the 'Is Dosage Bunkum?' thread for the background, but essentially only 24% of Cup runners have this figure of 17 but they've won 10 of the past 11 races (missed in 2010).
Now that's all out of the way, here's a progressive standing of where the nominees figure per 'the system'. Obviously this is going to change following further racing. I might update it once a week just to see how much movement there is.
| Horse | Order | Total | Less than 8yo | Wgt < 57kg | Not a mare | <= $21 SP | < $16 in last | Weighted lower | FS in last >= 10 | Won Black Type | <=3L in last | <6 victories |
| ISPOLINI (GB) | 15 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| FINCHE (GB) | 24 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| SURPRISE BABY (NZ) | 47 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MASTER OF REALITY (IRE) | 8 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| RAHEEN HOUSE (IRE) | 43 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| CONSTANTINOPLE (IRE) | 9 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| RAYMOND TUSK (IRE) | 27 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) | 38 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| HOMESMAN (USA) | 5 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MUSTAJEER (GB) | 13 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| HUSH WRITER (JPN) | 58 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| VOW AND DECLARE | 36 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MIRAGE DANCER (GB) | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE) | 19 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| MARMELO (GB) | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| SOUTHERN FRANCE (IRE) | 6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| LATROBE (IRE) | 11 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) | 14 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| MER DE GLACE (JPN) | 65 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| ZACADA (NZ) | 53 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| ETYMOLOGY | 55 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB) | 52 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ) | 66 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR) | 62 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| JUST THINKIN' | 69= | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| MASTER OF WINE (GER) | 69= | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| GOLD MOUNT (GB) | 28 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| HAKY (IRE) | 51 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CROSS COUNTER (GB) | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DOWNDRAFT (IRE) | 37 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| SHRAAOH (IRE) | 29 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TRUE SELF (IRE) | 42 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| MR QUICKIE | 23 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| GREY LION (IRE) | 49 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| STEEL PRINCE (IRE) | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| YUCATAN (IRE) | 21 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| NEUFBOSC (FR) | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE) | 41 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DAL HARRAILD (GB) | 48 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| MUNTAHAA (IRE) | 22 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SUPER TITUS (GB) | 69= | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SULLY (NZ) | 61 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| QAFILA | 25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| LORD FANDANGO (GER) | 68 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SIR CHARLES ROAD | 45 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| LOOKS LIKE ELVIS | 69= | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| WOLFE (JPN) | 69= | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SUPERNOVA (GB) | 69= | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| TE AKAU CALIBURN (IRE) | 69= | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| THE GOOD FIGHT (NZ) | 69= | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| ATTENTION RUN (GER) | 63 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| RED GALILEO (GB) | 44 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| IL PARADISO (USA) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| HUNTING HORN (IRE) | 18 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| RED VERDON (USA) | 26 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| HUMIDOR (NZ) | 64 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| RED CARDINAL (IRE) | 67 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| AVILIUS (GB) | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| TRAP FOR FOOLS | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| SWEET THOMAS (GER) | 54 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| MAGIC WAND (IRE) | 17 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| ANGEL OF TRUTH | 12 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (FR) | 46 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| GLORY DAYS (NZ) | 30 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| SOUND (GER) | 35 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| BIG DUKE (IRE) | 31 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| AZURO (FR) | 56 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| ALFARRIS (FR) | 69= | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| VALAC (IRE) | 59 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| SCARLET DREAM | 40 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| HANG MAN (IRE) | 69= | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| FAIRLIGHT (IRE) | 69= | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| TORCEDOR (IRE) | 33 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| OUR CENTURY (IRE) | 50 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| YOUNGSTAR | 32 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) | 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| WALL OF FIRE (IRE) | 69= | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| PATRICK ERIN (NZ) | 39 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| BONDEIGER | 57 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| TOP OF THE RANGE (NZ) | 60 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |