2nd March 2021, 10:09 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 641
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EPL Matches from Rounds 29 and 33
The EPL is trying to shorten the season by moving later round matches between the already scheduled rounds. Matches from Rounds 29 and 33 will be played starting tomorrow, one day after the weekend round was over. Obviously, all of these fixtures are congested.
I went back over the 182 congested fixtures that I evaluated. Had you placed what normally would have been 66 value bets, you would have lost 21% on turnover. Had you bet equally on all 182 congested fixtures, you would have won 15% on turnover. Of course, bookmakers reduce offerings so they usually make about a 10% profit. That shows how much congested fixtures hurt the better teams. For the 50 matches that were not congested, 16 value bets returned a 93% profit on turnover.
Stay well,
Ray Stefani
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