View Single Post
  #10  
Old 9th August 2015, 11:01 AM
Puntz Puntz is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 291
Default

Quote:
It was an increasing loser dependent only on Odds rank.


Yep, been down that path ages ago.

There is a strategy though to tweak the Odds before the Dutch Calc entry.
May be used as a filter, or I termed it personally, "Value_Leverage".

You use a Variable increase/decrease percent of your 3 prospective dutch selections, so for example if you have a runner @ 5.00, then Decrease the 5.00 by 10,15, 20 %, it's up to each one's choice, then enter that price into the Dutch Calculator.
Dutch 3 runners, lowering their given odds by a Variable_Percent.
Then your filter (or one of them ) is the Cost.
Hence the leverage if it's a bet or no bet, cost is the determining factor.

It works for the Target_Dutch method,
ie: Make 25.00 units Profit, not the other way round, spread 25.00 on the Dutch.

OK, so assume the Make_25_Units_Profit is your base, Bet 1.
Then you use another percent, the Cost_Factor that is after the Dutch Calc. That to is a Variable_Percent filter.

So the cost of the dutch after the prices have been lowered by 20% before the dutch calc entry, if that cost is let's say more than 20 units to make 25 units profit, then discard the bet, there is no "Value" in that particular race or bet for a Dutch_Bet/Target_Profit strategy.
The variable percentages is just playing around with the leverages, when to bet, when not to bet, and when to bet or not before the start of the race in fluctuating market.

Of course you can play with the Increase/Decrease percentages till the cows come back from Pluto, at the end of the day it comes down to Method_of_Selection, the Favorite_Ascending anywhere on the scale as you described box cross method, yeah, does not seem to work long term, BUT, technology has advanced since back then when it was being tried,
perhaps you will discover an edge.

From experience and some loose statistics;
6 strikes/losses and ya already maybe looking at 2000 Units required to chase the loss before a win.
Unless the odds are very good, 5's and up, losing on the 7 consecutive dutch_loss_chase_bet, you need a long shot selection method by then.

I got stats and stats of this stuff on a broken HD, there's at least 2 forum members that know of this experiment that was done ages ago.
At first it seemed successful with a, Stop_at_this_profit, or Stop_at_3_losses.
WE tried every angle till the machine/s broke down,
( Teletext days for data_input was the only thing that stopped this search for the hint of a grail, the phasing out of that old data_source technology to feed the number cruncher also stopped the search for a strategy.
The programmer at the time gave up went and got a job.


Good Luck !
Reply With Quote