Yes, Kenny that is the question,indeed. However, "statistically" seen the result is "right" every time for Betfair, as stats ONLY work in the long run (they are viewed AFTER THE EVENT, aren't they?) ie toss a coin; 50/50 chance but STILL a 100% chance of one result being correct and the other one NOT. After the 2nd toss (if it comes down on the other side) we say "see 50/50" and so on. Even if it ends up 505 heads to 495 tails it's "close enough" There is no "stat" however, which tells you the outcome of the NEXT event. They are ALWAYS simultaneously 50/50 BUT 100% certain of not being 50% right.
While there seems no way to "predict" each occurence ONE AT A TIME with coins (ie all things REALLY are equal), it is not like this with horses (or sports). Apply the coins/roulette/dice idea to horses and what you actually need is an "error" in the "apparatus" to get an edge (with coins; if you picked up that the face was significantly heavier than the taill, for example). This means, (for the races),finding an underrated (undervalued, underestimated) horse that ON THE DAY was/is, in reality (as with stats,we look AFTER the event) 100% certain or close to it. Like the coin analogy we are looking for something "wrong" (right!!!).. Once again, we then need to discover ON THE DAY what will allow this horse to over-run the others. What "advantage" has it got?
What we want therefore is access to "total knowledge" or, failing that, every trainer's words and THOUGHTS. We want the trainer to tell us the unvarnished truth about their horse.. They should let us know that the tracktimes are "suspect" (ie slower or faster) because the jockey was taking it easy or really pushing it. Or that the favoured horse seemed "grumpy" this morning, or that D. Beadman is under instructions to do......whatever, or that the real target is next week's race; or that the trainer has put the horse over 2000 m as a "practice" etc etc. But they don't. We have to deduce it!!
Well, how do we deduce what other people (our partners, mates,business associates) are REALLY thinking?? Well??? How do we know when the "boss" is annoyed Or happy,WITHOUT THEM TELLING US? . You already know!! Cheers.