Thread: A thought ...
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Old 9th June 2011, 10:03 AM
beton beton is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
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Bhagwan
lets look at an average race 9 runners. 1st fav $2.50 2nd $4 3rd $6 and 4th $8. It is going to cost $12 to back the fav to get back $30 incl stake. laying SP you will cover 20 bets for the fav 10, 6 and 4.28 bets respectfully on the next three favs. If the fav wins then you win $30 plus the divs from laying the 2nd 3rd and 4th fav, less the $30 liability and the $12 stake. A plus.
If the 2nd or 3rd wins then you come up with a negative. I suggest dropping the 4th and only use the top three as there are too many 4th favs >$10. Unless we can set to lay all horses <$10. Still to be trialled. If any other horse wins then you come out in front. In 100 races you should win 35 times on the fav. Lose 20 times on the 2nd and 15 times on the 3rd, but win 30 times on the rest of the field. On a dozen random races supports this. I was trialling with good results until my bot (BetBotPro) decided that it would lay multiple times (6 x $30 ouch). Until this is sorted or I get another bot this is in abeyence. Also need to work out how to keep the target bet at $30 incl stake rather than target to win $30.
Beton
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