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Old 12th April 2022, 11:22 AM
Unstable Unstable is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2022
Posts: 20
Default Tipsters

Tipsters are a bit like Ratings. They are someone's Opinion. I know of one tipster in NSW, that tips, the first 4 in the early market every day and get's paid for it. If the fav has a good day, he has a good day. You are right, Tipsters are hot and cold, just like horses, how does a horse, beaten 32lens in 3 starts, win the next start at 100/1?

Ratings are the same, someone's Opinion. If you take a set of rules and give each rule a value, you come up with the best horse, 100 rated. If it is the best horse, it will be the fav. So why not just give the fav 100 points, that's my opinion! Saves a lot of work.

As we all know, backing fav's will send you broke. Bookies and Corporations have already drop the prices on these horses, way below the chance factor.

So how do we win, well it is your own opinion in the end. The algorithm you come up with, is a start. Allocating point to varies Rules, to start your algorithm, could look like this, Market 50 points, 50 to the fav, then 40,30, 20,10 and 5 for the rest. Win in this Class, 30, Place in this Class, 15 points.
And we continue with a few other Rules for Points. Now we have our Opinion or Ratings.

That's fine BUT! There is not one Computerized Algorithm that will stand the test of time, In My Opinion. I have been doing ratings for 25 years, millions of test and they all fail the test of time, they go great for a Month or two, then 0/7 the next day, 1/8 the day after, WHY! Horses are no machines, they can be moody, for bid, the Jockey has a bad day, he let's the horse go back to last and wait's for gaps on the rail, that never appear and so on.

I do my for analysis with all these area's in mind. Look at the Jockey, is he hot or not? Is the horse is going up in distance and down in class? Blinkers First Time? These and other form factor's I use to determine my Opinion and value I'm getting for that Opinion, makes up my mind, whether to wager or not. Not Tipsters.
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