14th November 2005, 04:38 PM
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Suspended.
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by partypooper
Crash, I accept that its 256-1 to throw heads (or tales) 8 times in a row but what confuses me is that each throw even after 7 wins is still 50% isn't it?
On the question of profitability seems that many "pros." are working on a POT of 5% or even less what do you reckon to that?
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Your spot-on Party, regardless of the amount of throws, each throw has a 50% chance if it is the first or 50th. or millionth. I was demonstrating the cumulative odds and chose 8 throws because it is often used as the number of 'expected run of outs' for evens odds. Very few punters understand exactly what 'expected run of outs' mean [mostly nonsense]. Being able to work out the odds for any number of outs puts it in perspective and has meaning that we can relate too. A 256/1 chance of 8 outs in a row has meaning, '8 expected run of outs' has none.
Regarding your second question one must ask 5% of what? On an investment of $500 a week in bets it wouldn't pay my internet and electricity bill for that period, let alone provide profit. 5% on $100,000 ? Yes please.
That's the problem for us poor ************s on the bottom of the food chain. 'Bet 2% of Bank and be happy with 5% profit' is the maxim we have shoved down our gobs. That means for most of us - if we are successful, a free pie and soft drink a week:-)
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