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Originally Posted by walkermac
I was watching Sky and from the Mounting Yard they were dismissing runners due to state of their coat; that they weren't quiet "ready". It occurred to me that the horses don't enter themselves in a race, circle a day on their calendar and make sure that they're in shape in time. The first up stat in the formguide seems to imply that they do.
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You need to take what they say on these programs and take it with a grain of salt. Many of them are ex jockeys or simply broadcasters.
They mention the state of the coat, showing a bit of rib, on his toes, etc etc.
Some horses may be fit, but take longer for their coat to come through.
Some trainers feed hard boiled eggs to their horses and the coat comes out shiny, others don't believe in it.
Some horses are light doers and showing rib means they are overdone and not fed enough, so are likely to not do so well. Others are heavy doers and a bit of rib shows they are fit as they can be.
Some horses on their toes are purely nervous types which expend all their energy before the race. Others on their toes are rearing to go.
What I'm getting at, is one really should study the actual horse and get an idea of the trainers methods, and the horse.
Jockeys are notoriously bad tipsters, as are many broadcasters (overall).
They overlook what the trainer has in mind and the physiology of the actual horse.
Sweeping statements, do not help punters.
I know of at least two professional punters, that follow horses from particular stables, the formguide means nothing, they turn up for trackwork, they talk to the strappers and foreman, they watch intently as the horse does it's work and they get to know everything they can about the whole operation.
I remember going to Moonee Valley race club on a business matter and meeting with an un named trainer, who told me about the best horse he had in his stable, but that she had dicky legs, and would always have problems and never reach her full potential. Punters didn't know this. She had a few placings after that date, but never won another race before retirement.
One needs to be aware of the trainers that always talk up their horses, it's their job to do so, so often the stablehands and track riders are the best sources of information. Other trainers work the media, but one on one will tell you what's what, if they get to know you and think you're not just wasting their time.
These are things people don't take into account when looking at the formguide.
You can only work with what you have, but some guys out there go the extra mile and put in as much work as a strapper does.
These guys have a far bigger edge, than the rest of us overall.