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Old 30th April 2010, 10:45 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 2,389
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Morning Jack, well ,say 100 races, 3 bets per race = 300 units bet . In almost all cases the FAV would be in the tipsters top3 and we know that the FAV has 30$ S/R,............. so 30 times it will win in 100 races, we have staked roughly 1/3 of the total outlay per race to break even on the FAV.

So now we have 70 remaining races 3 bets per race = 210 we know that in 70 cases the FAV will NOT win so that takes care of roughly 70 units (taking an ave.of say $3.3) the remainer is split between the 2 remaning conveyances (level stakes) we know that about 20 of these will win (i.e. overall S/R of 50%) we have still 210 units invested, we would have to get $10.10c per winner to just break even overall.

Obviously each individual race will not pan out exactly like that, eg. one race may have $4, $6, $10 so theres 25% on the $4 shot and 37.5% on each of the others, and sometimes of course the $10 will win (roughly 1 time in about 8) conversly sometimes you may have $2, $5, and $12, so you stake 50% on the $2 shot, and 25% on the other 2 etc etc. but over time the stakes will be roughly 1/3 on each, averaged.
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