19th May 2012, 11:03 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,070
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by moeee
I just realized that getting the animals to win in proportion to their assessed Chances is totally useless.
If your system did that , then you would be ending up with the General Publics Market.
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You want them to win equal to or better than your assessed chances don't you?
Quote:
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The worthiness of a Ratings Market is in the profitability of the Overlays - NOTHING ELSE IS OF RELEVANCE.
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Indeed. The overlay comes when your assessed chance differs to the positive from the chance arrived at by the market. To make a long term profit your assessed chance would therefore need to be more accurate than the market. This may be possible on select races but I doubt anybody has achieved this across all races.
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Pixie "It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash
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