Thread: orphan winners
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Old 2nd October 2002, 06:21 PM
luckylouie luckylouie is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
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Hello again Noel, I spent an hour going through Wed/Sat/Sun results for approximately 8 weeks and found that yes, it did show a small profit. There were no really big priced winners in the sample (my idea of a big winner is over $9) and there were certainly days when you lost on virtually the lot. The only way to make it pay in its current form is to bet on every race meet both metropolitan and provincial, and in fact the horses with the best payout often were in the provincials. I have a couple of thoughts on improving the strike rate. Firstly eliminate those races where not all the horses have exposed form. Quite a few of the selections were for 2 and 3 year old horse races where some of the horses were having their first race. Secondly it might be a good idea to eliminate those horses who are inconsistent. By this I mean there were many selections where the horse had indeed won its last start but in general had a woeful track record. There are always fluke wins and if you want to cut down on looking at form, class and weight, then eliminating these horses probably does some of that for you. There were plenty of races where I would have discarded the last start winner based on its last five starts, however I didn't have the time to work out whether this would have made a difference or not. If you get a chance to do the figures, or have any ideas let me know. My email address is : luckylouie@bigpond.com.au
I'd be interested in seeing if we could make it a decent proposition.
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