21st February 2017, 05:33 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 641
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Super Rugby Week 1
Hi everyone,
It’s time to get started with a new Super Rugby season. Last season was my 17th season of Super Rugby. I picked the head-to-head winner in 72% of the matches. Only two past seasons were better. There was at least one surprise. Now that there are 18 teams with a new 15 match season, the domestic home advantage (among same-country teams) almost disappeared last season. I think the explanation is that when a team comes home after an extended trip to another country, they are rewarded with a home match, which is sometimes against a team from the same nation that had been in-country the preceding week. That means the home team may be the one with travel fatigue. Over a season, that scheduling quirk has affected the domestic home matches. I changed my various parameters based on what I learned from the new Super 18 format.
Be fairly conservative while betting for the first three or four weeks. I start where we left off last season. Some teams may have changed. Also, there are new international matchups compared to last season. The ratings will soon sort themselves out.
Good luck with Week 1!
Ray Stefani
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