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Old 19th April 2020, 08:48 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2013
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And that's that! A pretty good round to finish up on with my Captain finally winning a Group 1 race and me getting a 2nd placing in the other. Every selection performed above expectation except for Holyfield - who was last picked and just whom I could afford - and even then only very slightly.

My round 7 total was 209, not the highest but pretty good considering the races that were on offer. It was the 711th highest score among players, which was also around about my final ranking of 768.

The table was quite compressed though. What could have been!? Ignoring my subjective Captain selections as noted in this thread, in Round 3 the Captain choice came down to an expected value of 28.466 vs 28.455. There is some rounding along the way and had I normalised those figures then the latter horse would have been the actual pick. That was Addeyb, who won, and there would have been a 16pt turnaround. Round 4 I actually stuffed up my Captain choice entirely and should have gone with Verry Ellegant per the figures; another 22pts lost there. Fixing just those two errors I would have finished up in 455th. Perhaps higher still if I had the method entirely in place ahead of Round 1 and had used it then.

Not to imply I'm a clever horse-judge by the way, I'm just using the market's estimation after all. My method is essentially just comparing the value of a $x shot in a Group 3 vs a $y chance in a Group 1, but I guess it goes to show how well you have to go to beat the house.
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