Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12th September 2017, 05:46 PM
thorns thorns is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 446
Default Roughie Races

Been paper testing this system that has come from another post I found about wide open races. Pretty much eliminating a number of runners and backing the remainder to win, up to 12 runners per race so far.

This months results:
Races 55
Winning races: 33 (60% SR)
Outlay: 424
Return: 706.52 (BFSP no commission)

Interesting enough, if you just backed every horse in the race you would have outlayed 589, so still in profit even without accounting for those extra dividends (didn't record for now).

No price filter, or field filter either to date, so could be improved eliminating those donkeys at $200 or whatever. Longest prices so far are $91, $81, $69, $41, $39. So majority of the profit comes from the largest 3 divis.

Will post up the races on a daily basis and lets make the wheels fall off it.
Not sure the best way to back them yet, could flat stake, dutch, or lay the eliminated horses. obviously with some of the races even if you get a winner you lose at flat stakes if the dividend doesn't cover the outlay, very much a trial at the moment, and doubt it will continue on anywhere near its current performance, but could be an interesting experiment. Number of races can vary and someday there is 0. Will post after scratchings each day.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12th September 2017, 08:29 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,474
Default

Race selection is as important as horse selection.

Most people ignore it. Glad to see a post about someone using race selection as a selection method.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 13th September 2017, 12:08 PM
thorns thorns is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 446
Default

Canterbury R2 - 2,3,6

Canterbury R8 - 2,1,12,4,8,7,5,13,14

Belmont R6 - 12,4,2,10,6,9,7,11

Have done some more backtesting, its a rollercoaster ride to say the least, especially without price filters, max draw down to date is 157 units.........
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 13th September 2017, 12:41 PM
thorns thorns is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 446
Default

Close in the first race (Canterbury R2) to a big result, ran the $94 quinella as well.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 13th September 2017, 07:31 PM
thorns thorns is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 446
Default

Results
Out 20
In 26.21 (9.90 and 16.31 winners)

Eliminating horses over $100
Out 15
In 26.21

Laying the original eliminated horses
Flat stakes:
Selections : 9
Return : 3.90

$100 Liability
Return: $128.95
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 14th September 2017, 11:34 AM
thorns thorns is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 446
Default

Two races today:

Bendigo R7: 10,9,5,7,12,11,1,4
Grafton R8: 9,1,7,11,8,12,10,13,14

Outlay 17
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 14th September 2017, 02:08 PM
thorns thorns is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 446
Default

************, missed Bendigo R2 as a qualifier, $27 winner.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 14th September 2017, 03:41 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 596
Default

You have the $22 winner in R7 at Bendigo to console yourself
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 14th September 2017, 06:11 PM
thorns thorns is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 446
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
Two races today:

Bendigo R7: 10,9,5,7,12,11,1,4
Grafton R8: 9,1,7,11,8,12,10,13,14

Outlay 17
Results:
Out 17
In 29.81

Including Bendigo R2
Out 30
In 57.26

Lay
Selections 9
Return 0

Liability to $100
$176
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 15th September 2017, 09:34 AM
thorns thorns is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 446
Default

2 races today, listing the eliminated horses

Corowa R4 - 11,7,1
Corowa R8 - 3,1,4
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 12:43 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655